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Mike Fuljenz Weekly Report

October 2018 - Week 2 Edition

It’s Time to Start Planning Some Special Gifts for the Holiday Season!

Last year, my wife Karen and I went to hear Wynonna Judd and the Big Noise in her excellent Christmas show. It got me to thinking about a new way of giving gifts as the holidays approach.

 

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October 2018 - Week 1 Edition

5 Major Reasons to Own Silver Now

Silver is Down more than Gold, but Silver Rises Faster than Gold. Silver is like “gold on steroids” once gold starts rising again. In the 1970s, gold rose 24-fold, from $35 to $850, but silver rose 39-fold, from $1.29 to $50. Again, from 2001 to 2011, gold rose 650% (from $255 to $1,920) while silver rose 1,100% (from $4.06 to $48.70). 

 

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September 2018 - Week 4 Edition

Barron’s “Rediscovers” Gold

The current (September 24, 2018) edition of Barron’s features a cover article, “Rediscovering Gold,” which features a line drawing of a lone Western cowboy pausing before a stack of gold bullion bars with a purple sunset in the background. The cover subtitle is “Why the out-of-favor metal should be part of your investment portfolio.”

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September 2018 - Week 3 Edition

Why We Stand for the Flag and the Anthem

After marking the anniversary of 9-11 last week, this week marks another meaningful date in American history. September 17 was U.S. Citizenship Day as well as Constitution Day. Under either name, it marks the date in 1787 when the U.S. Constitution was signed by 38 of the 41 delegates at the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia and the date in 1796 when President George Washington’s Farewell Address was read before Congress.

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September 2018 - Week 2 Edition

2018 Silver American Eagles are so “Hot, Hot, Hot,” They’ve Sold Out

We reported last week that over 1.5 million Silver American Eagles were sold in August. This week, we learned that Silver American Eagle sales shot up so rapidly in the first week of September that the U.S. Mint had to temporarily halt sales due to a depletion of inventories.

 

Right now, the hottest trend in the numismatic world is coins with low populations near the “best seen” in their category

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September 2018 - Week 1 Edition

Lower Population Coins are “Hot, Hot, Hot!”

Right now, the hottest trend in the numismatic world is coins with low populations near the “best seen” in their category

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August 2018 - Week 4 Edition

Highlights from My Latest Media Interview

Last week, I was interviewed by a major industry publication, first on gold and then on the coin market.

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August 2018 - Week 3 Edition

Report from “The World’s Fair of Money” in Philadelphia

At the site of America’s first national Mint, I am always able to meet with the movers and shakers in our industry, as well as those who run the Mint and print our money.  For instance, Len Olijar, Director of the Treasury Department’s Bureau of Engraving and Printing (BEP) humorously introduced himself by saying “I make $840 million a day,” referring to the amount of paper money he prints each day!

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August 2018 - Week 2 Edition

Will Gold Bounce Back Five Times Faster than Usual This Time?

It’s discouraging to see gold fall 1.5% in one day, reaching a new 52-week low and falling below $1,200, but historically these sorts of sharp declines have led to above-average returns over the next one to three months. In fact, returns have been five times better than the average returns over those same time spans.

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August 2018 - Week 1 Edition

The U.S. Economy is Doing Well – Creating More Demand for Special Coins

As I’ve written before, five billionaires have already jumped into the coin market with both feet, and I think they’re ahead of the curve in doing this. Don’t wait for the next big move in gold. Do what the billionaires are doing!  Call us today!

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July 2018 - Week 5 Edition

Goldman Sachs Stands By its $1,450 Gold Target for 2019

Standing firm against the mainstream’s bearish views on gold, Goldman Sachs is sticking with its $1,450 gold price projection for 2019 – a price level not seen since May 9, 2013.  Goldman is also taking a contrarian position on the entire commodities sector, which has fallen on hard times this year.

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July 2018 - Week 4 Edition

Buy the Bargains Now, So You May Double Your Money Later

Similarly, gold looks to be depressed now. The dollar has been up and gold has been down but I, like J. P. Morgan and Commerzbank, see what’s coming, just like I saw quality lakefront property before the boom.  In past reports, we’ve shown how the national debt is rising to over a trillion a year again, how gold is becoming harder to find and to excavate and how the fall and winter are the best times for gold.

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July 2018 - Week 3 Edition

Bitcoin can be Dangerous to Own – It’s Down 63% in Price and Subject to Theft and Fraud

The price for a single Bitcoin peaked at $19,783.21 on December 17, 2017.  Yesterday, the quoted price was $7,317.41, down 63% in seven months.

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July 2018 - Week 2 Edition

U.S. Budget Deficits Begin to Soar Again – Putting Pressure on the Dollar

The big financial news in the second quarter was that the U.S. dollar rallied, sending gold down, but the dollar rally can’t be sustained with deficits sharply rising and long-term interest rates falling.

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July 2018 - Week 1 Edition

Commerzbank Predicts $1500 Gold and $20 Silver in 2019

Germany's Commerzbank regards gold's current price weakness as "temporary," adding that "gold should turn positive once the dollar strength starts to fade."

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June 2018 - Week 4 Edition

Billionaires Bid Up Top-End Rare Coins, Helping the Entire Rare Coin Market

Watching the coin market these days is a little bit like watching “Clash of the Titans,” witnessing multiple billionaire buyers competing for the top-tier coins that turn up in the marketplace.

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June 2018 - Week 3 Edition

Billionaires in the Coin Market -- Part 3 (Coming Soon)

In May, I wrote about how a select few billionaires had helped to keep the gold bullion market rising through their ETF purchases for their hedge funds, while a separate group of very-rich billionaires have entered the rare coin market to compete for high-quality rare coins, creating a resurgence in demand for many coins trading from $5,000 and up.

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June 2018 - Week 2 Edition

The Silver American Eagle – A Perfect “Flag Day” Purchase

With America’s Flag Day coming this Thursday, the classic design of the Silver American Eagle makes the perfect gift, keepsake and reminder of America’s greatness – and also a preferred investment in silver

Sales of American Eagle Gold coins had been fairly slow for the first four months of 2018, but the U.S. Mint just reported that sales soared by a whopping 433% in May compared with April. 

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June 2018 - Week 1 Edition

U.S. Mint Gold Sales Suddenly Soar in May

Sales of American Eagle Gold coins had been fairly slow for the first four months of 2018, but the U.S. Mint just reported that sales soared by a whopping 433% in May compared with April. 

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May 2018 - Week 5 Edition

This is the Time of Year to Buy Gold (and Sell Stocks)

Gold and stocks tend to move in opposite directions – one zigs while the other zags.  Stocks tend to rise in the first half of the year and gold in the second half.

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May 2018 - Week 4 Edition

This is the Best Buying Opportunity of the Year for Gold

Gold will not likely recover rapidly, but gold’s best months come in the fall, so the summer months give investors a good time to accumulate gold.

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May 2018 - Week 3 Edition

A Few Billionaires (the Smart Ones) Still Prefer Gold

Last week, I told you about a handful of billionaires entering the U.S. rare coin market lately, including two seeking the best-of-kind sets, as well as an Egyptian multi-billionaire putting half of his $5.7 billion net worth into gold.

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May 2018 - Week 2 Edition

Coin-Buying Billionaires Competing for “Best of Breed” Coin Sets

An old adage is that coin collecting is “The Hobby of Kings,” since only kings could afford (or have the power to seize) the top quality of rare coins made of precious metals. Today, that slogan has changed to become “The Collector is King,” with the serious collector of rare coins driving the up price of coins.

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May 2018 - Week 1 Edition

Q&A with Dr. Mike Fuljenz America’s Gold Expert® on Gold Recovered from the SS Central America

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April 2018 - Week 4 Edition

Higher Inflation and Interest Rates are Coming – and That’s GOOD for Gold

Gold’s biggest bull market came from 1976 to 1980, when inflation and interest rates were soaring to their highest levels in the 20th century.

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April 2018 - Week 3 Edition

Gold Reaches a 20-Month High After a Confrontational Presidential “Tweet” on April 11

Last Wednesday, April 11, President Trump issued an advance warning of his air strike on Syria. Gold futures shot up to an intraday high of $1,369.30, marking gold’s highest price since August of 2016, when gold reached $1,375. 

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April 2018 - Week 2 Edition

Gold Up Nearly 3% in 2018

Gold rose $8 last week and is up nearly 3% for the year while the Dow Jones index is down 3% for the year through last Friday. Since Y2K, gold is up 3.3 times more than the Dow and 4.7 times more than the S&P 500.

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April 2018 - Week 1 Edition

More Q&A about the Coins from the SS Central America

Why were some coins from other U.S. branch mints found in the SS Central America wreckage?

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March 2018 - Week 4 Edition

Q&A with Dr. Mike Fuljenz on Gold Recovered from the SS Central America

These coins were first recovered in 1988, so why has it taken so long for them to come to market?

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March 2018 - Week 3 Edition

“Ship of Gold” Stories Behind Some of the Buried Gold – as Told by the Survivors

I thought I would share some of the dramatic stories of the survivors of the SS Central America’s 1857 sinking, as it relates to the gold which they and others held on board that ship – and the harrowing decisions they had to make as the ship was sinking.

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March 2018 - Week 2 Edition

Tariffs Could Spark Trade Wars and Make Gold a Winner

On March 1, President Trump announced 25% tariffs on imported steel and 10% tariffs on imported aluminum.

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March 2018 - Week 1 Edition

Many Classic Double-Eagles are Being Thrown into the Melting Pot

The population of classic MS61 or lower-grade Double Eagle gold coins is shrinking.

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February 2018 - Week 4 Edition

The “Ship of Gold” Treasure Is Now Available in 2018

By Dr. Michael Fuljenz, America’s Gold Expert®

Nothing excites the public more than finding shipwreck gold. When I was 12, I had a metal detector and entertained dreams of finding some of the buried treasure of Jean Lafitte and other pirates who haunted the bayous of Southwest Louisiana.  But there is no ship more famous than the United States Mail Steamship Company’s SS Central America, which in 1857 carried tons of gold worth over $2 million dollars, at $20.67 an ounce, and 38,000 pieces of U.S. mail.

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February 2018 - Week 3 Edition

“The Ghost of Inflation Reappears” – Barron’s, February 19, 2018

Gold rose to $1,355 last Thursday, based on the high inflation readings but it settled down to $1,347 by Friday.  At the same time, 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds reached 2.9% yields – up from 2.4% at the start of 2018.  Stocks also recovered, but they are still trailing gold in 2018. When you combine rising inflation (at a 6% annual rate) with Treasury yields rising at a slower rate, you get a negative “real” rate of return, which is leading to a decline in the U.S. dollar and a corresponding increase in the price of gold.

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February 2018 - Week 2 Edition

Gold Recovered Strongly

Gold recovered strongly, while the stock market is still slightly below zero, despite a strong recovery on Monday.  As of last Friday, the S&P 500 had fallen 11.8% from its peak just two weeks before.  As a result of that sharp collapse in stocks, some investors had to sell their gold (or other appreciating assets) in order to meet margin calls on their leveraged stock investments. That’s why gold fell a bit late last week, before recovering strongly on Monday and Tuesday. In the 18+ years since the start of the new century, gold is up 359% vs. only 114% for the Dow Jones stock index and 81% for the S&P 500.

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February 2018 - Week 1 Edition

We’re Right on Schedule for “The Year of the Gold Coin”

Gold and stocks both fell last week but stocks fell further, shocking investors with a 666-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrials last Friday and then an even more shocking 1,175-point drop on Monday.  In the last six trading days, the Dow dropped 2,270 points (-8.5%). The stock market was overdue for a correction, so traders were looking for a reason to sell stocks, but the proximate reasons cited last Friday were low sales of Apple X phones and the publication of a controversial political memo about the FBI. Meanwhile, gold and silver rose on Monday, while stocks were suffering their sharpest decline in years.

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January 2018 - Week 5 Edition

With Gold Closing in on $1,400 – Can it Reach $1,500 in 2018?

Gold reached a 17-month high last Thursday, touching $1,365 after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that the U.S. welcomed a weaker U.S. dollar to boost U.S. exports.  In part, he said “Obviously a weaker dollar is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities” and blithely added that the dollar’s weakness is “not a concern of ours at all.” Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross basically echoed Mnuchin’s comments. Gold rose to within $1 of a two-year high (at $1,366, set in July 2016).  Going into Davos, the dollar was already at a three-year low.  Silver rose by 50 cents (+3%) through Thursday last week, the biggest percent rise of the precious metals.

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January 2018 - Week 4 Edition

Bitcoin Falls 53% in One Month!

In the last month, gold is up $95, and Bitcoin is down $9,500!  The first official trading of Bitcoin in America was introduced on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) on December 10, 2017. Less than a week later, we saw the bubble peak of Bitcoin prices at $19,870.62 on December 16.  (Unlike most financial markets, Bitcoin trades 24/7 around the world, somewhere, electronically, including weekends.)

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January 2018 - Week 3 Edition

The Dollar May be Just Beginning a Long-Term Down Trend

Ever since the dollar was set loose from gold in 1971, we have seen a series of wide dollar swings down and up and down again, usually in swings lasting 7-8 years.  The dollar fell from 1971 to 1978, rose from 1978 to 1985, fell until 1994, rose until 2001, fell until 2008, rose until 2016 and began falling in 2017.

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January 2018 - Week 2 Edition

The Wall Street Journal Likes Gold Again!

Gold began the new year with a big $20 rise on Thursday to $1,325 before correcting to $1,318 on Friday.  Gold and silver each gained 1.7% for the week while stocks shot up over 2%.  Gold bottomed out at $1,240 on December 12, the day before the Federal Reserve announced its latest rate increase.  Gold then rose in 11 of its last 12 trading sessions of the year. In less than a month, gold has risen to $1,320, while Bitcoin has fallen, so Wall Street has turned its attention to gold once again in the new year.

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December 31, 2017 - Year-end Edition

A Review of 2017 in the Rare Coin and Collectibles Market

Gold closed the year above $1,300 for its best annual increase (+13.5%) since 2010.  Despite a strong year for gold, the sales of the American Gold Eagle were only 302,500 ounces in 2017, a 10-year low and a 69% decline from 2016’s sales of 985,000 ounces.  Buffalo gold coin sales were the worst ever, at only 99,500 ounces vs. 219,500 ounces in 2016. Likewise, sales of silver American Eagle bullion coins fell to a 10-year low of 18,065,500 ounces, down from a record 47 million ounces in 2015 and 52% below the 37.7 million sold in 2016.  The sales declines were similar at Australia’s Perth Mint, another large manufacturer of bullion coins. Through November 30, Perth’s sales of gold coins was down 56.3% from the same 11 months in 2016. November’s sales were down 46.4% from the previous month.

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December 2017 - Week 4 Edition

Bitcoin Bites the Dust – Down $7,200 (37%) in Five Days

While gold is rising, the trendy electronic crypto-currency Bitcoin collapsed from $19,363 on Sunday, December 17 to a low of $12,148 (down 37% in five days) on Friday, December 22, before rallying to close above $13,000 over the weekend (Bitcoin trades 24/7 and also on weekends).  Apparently, investors are starting to realize that Bitcoin is only a creative computerized fiction, while gold is the Real Thing.

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December 2017 - Week 3 Edition

2017: The Dollar Fell, Gold Rose and My Friend Won a Bet

A year ago, in their December 26, 2016 issue – their last issue for 2016 – the Barron’s Commodities column carried the headline, “The End of a Gold Era.”  They quoted leading Wall Street banks like Bank of America, which said that Fed rate hikes will be “a key headwind to gold.”   The London Bullion Market Association, however, was more bullish than usual in their 2017 predictions. The summary statement of the LBMA survey said: “2017 will certainly be an eventful and unpredictable year given the high degree of geopolitical uncertainty, with a more nationalistic U.S. President in residence and the indications that the UK will pursue a hard Brexit in its negotiations with the EU.” In addition, they said there is “the prospect of further uncertainty with elections to be held later in 2017 in both France and Germany, as well as the potential for tensions between the U.S. and China. Analysts are predicting that the gold price will trade in an average range of $1,101 to $1,379. Greater uncertainty should prove positive for gold, as could higher inflation if the new U.S. administration adopts reflationary policies.”

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December 2017 - Week 2 Edition

Liberal Pundit Paul Krugman is Wrong Again

At 12:42 am on Wednesday morning, November 9, 2016, the Liberal Nobel-Prize winning economist Paul Krugman filed an article for the New York Times titled “The Economic Fallout,” which began like this:

“It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover? Frankly, I find it hard to care much, even though this is my specialty. The disaster for America and the world has so many aspects that the economic ramifications are way down my list of things to fear. Still, I guess people want an answer. If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.”

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December 2017 - Week 1 Edition

Michael Flynn, North Korea and Gold Prices

Gold flirted with $1,300 last week – each London morning price fix from Monday through Wednesday ranged from $1,293 to $1,295 – only to fall below $1,280 again by week’s end. There was a lot of news pushing gold prices around – a tax bill working its way through the Senate, a guilty plea by former Trump advisor Michael Flynn and ongoing concerns about North Korea’s nuclear missile capabilities – but all three of these issues are far from resolved, so we should see gold continue to trade as a “crisis hedge.”

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