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May, 2015 - Week 1 Edition

Metals vs. Markets Final 2014 prices vs: ---- Change vs. January 1 Prices in 2000-08 ---
Metals: End-2014 May 8, 2015 2000 2005 2008
Gold $1,199 $1,188     -0.9% $290 (+309%) $437 (+172%) $836 (+42%)
Silver $15.97 $16.45     +3.8% $5.34 (+208%) $6.78 (+143%) $14.76 (+11%)
           
Stocks: End-2014 May 8, 2015      
Dow 17,823 18,191     +2.1% 11497 (+58%) 10021 (+82%) 13265 (+37%)
S&P 2,059 2,116       +2.8% 1469 (+44%) 1148 (+84%) 1468 (+44%)

Gold remained below $1200 last week, but gold received a “bump” last Wednesday when Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen was in Europe for a meeting with IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde at a financial conference.  In the Q&A segment of that conference, she warned that stock market valuations at this point generally are “quite high” and added that “there are potential dangers there.”  Her remarks sent stocks down and gold up, but only briefly, as stocks rose on Friday, while gold corrected.

Precious metals imports into the U.S. rose last quarter. According to Thomson Reuters GFMS, gold imports rose 14.9% in the first quarter of 2015 vs. the same period last year. Gold imports came primarily from Turkey, India, Italy, and China.  Silver jewelry imports rose 6.9%, and platinum jewelry rose 6.7%. 

Some Major Mainstream Analysts are Bullish on Gold 

Jeffrey Gundlach is considered one of the two greatest experts on bonds, along with Bill Gross.  He is the principal at DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund. At the New York Yacht Club last Tuesday, he reiterated his January prediction that gold would reach $1,400 this year.  He cites the attractiveness of gold in competition with negative or very low interest rates in Europe and America. The fears of a Fed rate hike should diminish along due to the sub-par economic statistics released lately, including a flat first-quarter GDP.  He said the weak U.S. economy should keep the Fed “dovish” for the time being.

Bob Dickey, an analyst at RBC Wealth Management, sees more risks in stocks right now than in gold and silver. While he sees a “sizable” correction in stocks, he thinks gold and silver are trading at “timely long-term entry points.” He sees that “entry point” in gold anywhere in the range of $1,130 to $1,300, which he sees lasting for several more months, with any breakout above $1,300 being “a true bull-market signal.”

10 Rare U.S. Gold Double Eagles to be Returned to Langbord Family

In other double eagle news, Yahoo just reported that the 3rd U.S. Court of Appeals in Philadelphia ruled by a 2-1 vote that the U.S. government must return 10 rare gold double eagle ($20) coins which they took from a collector family a decade ago.  The court declared that Joan Langbord and her sons Roy and David are the rightful owners of the double eagles. The coins were minted 1933, the year President Franklin D. Roosevelt prohibited private ownership of most gold by American citizens Prior to FDR’s order, the Philadelphia Mint had produced 445,500 1933 double eagle coins.  These coins were not granted legal tender status.  Most were melted down and never circulated, but a few were smuggled out and became famous ‘underground’ treasures.  (One surviving specimen legal to own was the famous 1933 double eagle owned by Egypt’s King Farouk.  Another is in the National Numismatic Collection at the Smithsonian.)

According to a Reuters report by Jonathan Stempel, “The government had long suspected without proving that the late Israel Switt, a gold dealer and father of Joan Langbord, had smuggled some of the coins with the help of a Mint employee.” The Feds later seized the Langbords’ 1933 double Eagle collection after the family had discovered the coins in a safety deposit box that once belonged to Switt. They asked the Mint to authenticate them, which led to their confiscation. The Langbords filed a ‘seized asset claim’ in September 2005, but the government refused to return the coins and did not seek their forfeiture within 90 days as required under the federal Civil Asset Forfeiture Reform Act.  The Langbords lost the first round in July 2011, and appealed. In reversing the lower court decision, Circuit Judge Marjorie Rendell wrote: “The government knew that it was obligated to bring a judicial civil forfeiture proceeding or to return the property, but refused.  “Having failed to do so, it must return the double Eagles to the Langbords.”

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