GOLD 00.00 1.20 0.00%
SILVER 00.00 1.20 0.00%

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Metal Market Report January 2020 - Week 3 Edition

January 2020 - Week 3 Edition

Our 2019 Predictions Were “Right On,” So Here’s What We See For 2020

In our first Metals Report for 2019, we used research reports from several major banks around the world to construct a prediction for gold prices in 2019 ranging from highs of $1,350 to $1,565.

As it turned out, gold’s high in the calendar year of 2019 was $1,540 in August, but gold peaked at over $1,565 just a few days into January 2020, so we missed the exact top by just a few days and a few dollars.

This year, we have scoured the Internet for stories about major commercial banks predicting gold prices for 2020, and we have found no definitive numbers much above $1,600 from major non-gold banking sources, so we will make our own fearless forecast of a peak gold price of $1,800 this year, with silver surpassing $20 per ounce. Our reasons should be familiar to long-time readers of this Metals Report:

  • Election years have been very favorable to gold since the Year 2000, in five straight cycles. In the last two election years (2012 and 2016), gold has risen by over 8%.
  • A threatened impeachment of a Republican president by a Democratic Congress has been tried in 1974 (Nixon) and 1987 (Reagan), both resulting in rising gold prices and a stock market crash. Even if the President escapes this impeachment attempt, the “swamp creatures” will attack again.
  • Global tensions are escalating as foreign dictators think they can take advantage of a President under assault at home. Expect tensions to rise in Iran and the Middle East, and in Asia, perhaps from North Korea, or perhaps a challenge over the onerous trade tariffs still levied on China.

The fundamentals also favor gold, with lower supplies coming from new mines and more demand coming from central banks, ETF buying and investor demand, pushing gold’s price to $1,800 (if Trump wins). If Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders win the 2020 election, gold would likely soar to $2,000 or higher.

Gold Returns to $1,560 Monday

Gold returned to $1,560 Monday, even with light holiday trading, reaching its highest level since January 10, at the end of a tense week in Iran. Last Friday, the holdings in the world’s largest gold-backed ETF rose 2.2% to 899 metric tons, its highest level since November 11. Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg said, “Investors are flocking towards gold in spite of a spike in equity markets mostly because of long-term uncertainties like political insecurity, probable equity market volatility in the future, weak earning expectations and ultra-low interest rates.” So far this year, gold and stocks are both up about 3%.

I Met a True American Hero, Gene Metcalfe

Last Sunday, I met a true American hero, Gene Metcalfe, a paratrooper in World War II, who became a Prisoner of War after his jump into France and injury in Operation Market Garden in the Battle of Arnhem in the Netherlands (September 1944). The story of his life is told in a new book by Marcus Nannini, called “Left for Dead at Nijmegen.” The title comes from the fact that his injuries were so severe that he was left on the field of battle and assumed dead, but of course he wasn’t. He’s now 97 and I met him and his lovely wife of 60 years. They are both as sharp as a tack.

I was so intrigued by his story that I wanted to help bring them out to our part of the country from their home in Arizona to be honored Monday at a banquet. Gene and his biographer Marcus Nannini are being given the PenCraft Award in Lake Charles this Monday for their combined work in “Left for Dead at Nijmegen,” a book resulting from 70 hours of taped interviews by the author of Gene’s memoirs.

So few World War II veterans are willing to share the details of combat that it is important to capture their stories while they are still alive and sharp-minded. His story is most compelling, a daring account of rescuing injured soldiers at great risk, of escape and recapture…and encountering Heinrich Himmler.

There are so few of the “Greatest Generation” left alive who fought in World War II. To be in the Armed Forces at age 18 in 1944, one had to be born in 1926, making them 94-years-old now.  My dad was in the Air Force in that war. He met mom at an Air Force Base in Louisiana, where she helped out at the USO. During WWII, mom’s students collected more grease than any other students in the area. Grease was high in glycerin, used for armaments. I’ll save that story for next week, but due in part to my family history, I’m proud that our company has always made it a policy to be involved with supporting our men and women in uniform – from hiring veterans to raising money for the Congressional Medal of Honor Foundation, to giving honor to heroes like Gene Metcalfe. 

 

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